OTTAWA — As fellow rebuilders in Detroit and Buffalo struggle with their starts, the Ottawa Senators can at least say their head is above water after five games.
There are positives like Linus Ullmark, their front-line offensive players, the power play and their pace. The negatives? Backup goaltending, the injury bug, their defending and the consistency needed for their play style.
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“I think there’s a lot of things we need to work on still,” Senators forward Claude Giroux said after Saturday’s 5-4 win over the Tampa Bay Lightning. “It’s a process, and anytime you have new, new teammates, new coaching, it’s going to take a few games. I think we’ve been doing a good job of adapting to how we want to play. I think there’s more times during the games that we’re going to be able to show how we want to play. I think if we’re consistent doing that, that’s when we’re going to start winning more hockey games.”
Five games do not dictate whether a team will make the playoffs, but here are some notes we’ve taken through the Senators’ first stretch of the season.
Jake Sanderson has been their best player
If Ullmark had played more games, he would have earned this distinction. Tim Stützle could also be a candidate due to his offence.
But we’re giving it to Sanderson because of how solid he’s been at both ends of the ice. He has left no doubts about his status as the team’s No. 1 defenceman thanks to his overall usage, his point production (one goal, seven points in five games including a three-point game on Saturday) and his power-play performance. Six of Sanderson’s points have come on the power play, with the other coming short-handed. Entering Sunday night’s games, Sanderson was tied for second among NHL defencemen in points. Cale Makar leads them all with 12 points. Makar and Sanderson are also tied for power-play points.
“A little bit of different looks than last year, getting a little more power-play time and whatnot,” Sanderson said on Saturday. “But you can put me in any situation, I won’t complain. So, I’m liking it so far.”
NHL defencemen scoring leaders
Player | GP | G | A | PTS ▼ | CF% | PPP |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Cale Makar | 6 | 2 | 10 | 12 | 54.38 | 6 |
Josh Morrissey | 5 | 1 | 6 | 7 | 46.05 | 2 |
Shea Theodore | 6 | 1 | 6 | 7 | 43.15 | 3 |
Jake Sanderson | 5 | 1 | 6 | 7 | 50.56 | 6 |
Philip Broberg | 6 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 47.47 | |
Rasmus Andersson | 5 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 44.33 | |
Neal Pionk | 5 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 53.89 | 2 |
Seth Jones | 6 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 50.78 | 3 |
Adam Fox | 5 | 6 | 6 | 60.93 | 4 | |
8 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 47.15 | ||
John Carlson | 4 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 56.92 | 1 |
Erik Karlsson | 7 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 51.09 | 2 |
Note: Corsi For percentage is for players at five-on-five.
Sanderson has only been on the ice for two goals against at five-on-five so far this season. Conversely, he’s only been on the ice for two goals for at five-on-five. But his pairings with Artem Zub and Travis Hamonic have been among the team’s strongest through five games, save for a few statistical categories.
Senators defensive pairings (min 25:00)
Defensive pairings | CF% | xGF% | SCF% | HDCF% |
---|---|---|---|---|
Jacob Bernard-Docker-Tyler Kleven | 64.44 | 57.97 | 64.71 | 33.33 |
Nick Jensen-Thomas Chabot | 49.61 | 43.26 | 50.00 | 28.57 |
Travis Hamonic-Jake Sanderson | 48.72 | 60.23 | 50.00 | 58.33 |
Jake Sanderson-Artem Zub | 42.86 | 46.15 | 37.50 | 30.00 |
Travis Hamonic-Tyler Kleven | 34.15 | 24.46 | 28.57 | 16.67 |
Note: Percentages are for players at five-on-five.
Some Senators fans have slowly wondered about the young defenceman’s Norris Trophy candidacy. If he continues his strong start, it won’t be long before those whispers turn to chants.
They could use another defenceman
While Sanderson has shined for the Senators, the statistics above should tell you some improvement is needed on the defensive end. Through five games, the Senators have allowed 3.80 goals per game. Only six NHL teams have a worse rate.
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Nick Jensen and Thomas Chabot could be better. According to Natural Stat Trick, Chabot has been on the ice for 12 goals, including 11 at five-on-five. Jensen has been on the ice for nine goals at all strengths, including eight at five-on-five. The Tyler Kleven-Hamonic pairing hasn’t been strong, though both players have looked better away from each other.
Hamonic and Kleven both commit low on the PK, leaving the slot wide open. This can't happen. pic.twitter.com/7dw1qT4oLl
— Everyday Sens (@EverydaySens) October 12, 2024
It looked like a possibility at the start of the season. Through five games, it’s clear the Senators would benefit from adding another experienced defenceman who can kill penalties. If the Senators remain competitive at the trade deadline, don’t be surprised if a defenceman ranks high on GM Steve Staios’ checklist. And this was before Zub got hurt last week.
Their speed and transition play are good
Ottawa has found ways to turn defence into offence through five games with its work in transition and counterattacks. Its speed is apparent particularly in the neutral zone due to quick passes that lead to players entering the zone with speed. This has been a strength in the early days of the Travis Green coaching era.
Ottawa goal!
Scored by Josh Norris with 06:39 remaining in the 1st period.
Assisted by Claude Giroux and Drake Batherson.
Ottawa: 2
Tampa Bay: 0#TBLvsOTT #GoSensGo #GoBolts pic.twitter.com/YXes0UKLqX— NHL Goals (@nhl_goal_bot) October 19, 2024
“You watch the NHL nowadays, it’s fast,” Green said. “The teams that can play that three-quarter ice game get an advantage. You don’t always have to be the fastest skater to play fast. Our game’s coming as far as that goes. Not just with the puck, but without the puck.
“The structure part of your game. How you want to play, but also the players buying in. Getting open, sprinting to get open. There’s a combination of a lot of things happening for you to play fast in the neutral zone between the defenceman and the forward. There’s a lot going on. Overall, it’s playing as five-man units and not only knowing what you’re trying to do but buying into it.”
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They need more support from their backups or another backup option
The Senators have already had to adjust to life without their starter, Ullmark, who missed the last three games due to a strain. Will he be ready for the upcoming road trip to Utah, Colorado and Vegas?
“Possibly,” Green said on Saturday.
The Senators have since sent Mads Sogaard back to the AHL, which strongly indicates Ullmark should play Tuesday against Utah.
While Green mostly liked what he saw from Anton Forsberg Saturday against the Lightning, Forsberg could be better. He has yet to allow fewer than three goals this season, allowing four against the Lightning despite making some key saves in the third period. Sogaard allowed four goals in his sole appearance despite earning a win against Los Angeles. To make matters worse, he left a game injured in AHL action over the weekend.
Ullmark, a Vezina Trophy winner, is an improvement for Ottawa in goal, but the most games he’s ever played in a season is 49 and there is a strong chance the Senators will need him for more than 49 games this year. On the nights Ullmark needs a break, the Senators need their backup to be consistent and hold down the fort. They should expect more from Forsberg — a pending free agent at season’s end — or consider another option to work in tandem with Ullmark.
GO DEEPERLinus Ullmark shows why Senators' investment in him was necessary: 5 takeawaysFor Ottawa to make the playoffs, Stützle has to be ‘the guy.’ So far, so good
Stützle’s scoring touch is there; he has seven points in his first five games (he had six in five games last year). His physical presence is also there; he has nine hits through his last two games. If his health remains intact and his offensive production remains consistent, we could see the German forward hit the 90-point plateau again. It is very early, but Hockey Reference says he’s on pace for a 54-goal, 126-point season.
Those projections could come down. But Stützle remains the front-line player the Senators need him to be if they want to make the postseason.
— Statistics from Natural Stat Trick and Hockey Reference as of Sunday, Oct. 20
(Photo: André Ringuette / NHLI via Getty Images)
Julian McKenzie is a staff writer for The Athletic's NHL vertical and is based in Ottawa. He also hosts The Chris Johnston Show with The Athletic's Chris Johnston. Julian's work can also be found in the New York Times, FiveThirtyEight, CTV Montreal, The Canadian Press, TSN 690, the Montreal Gazette, The Sporting News and in other publications. Follow Julian on Twitter @jkamckenzie